Top 9 carriers control 83% of capacity, but the 3 alliances control only 39%

排名前9位的运营商控制了83% 的运力，但是3个联盟只控制了39%

Greg Miller 格雷格 · 米勒 Wednesday, February 01, 2023 2023年2月1日，星期三

The world’s top two container lines — Switzerland’s MSC and Denmark’s Maersk — have cooperated since 2015 in the 2M alliance, a partnership they will end in 2025.Because MSC and Maersk have the biggest fleets, controlling over a third of all global capacity between them, 2M is the largest alliance, right?

全球最大的两家集装箱航运公司——瑞士的海运集团(MSC)和丹麦的马士基(Maersk)——自2015年以来一直在2M 联盟中进行合作，双方将于2025年结束这种伙伴关系。因为 MSC 和马士基拥有最大的船队，控制着全球超过三分之一的运力，2M 是最大的联盟，对吗？

【资料图】

Not so, explained container shipping data provider and analyst Alphaliner. “The picture can be deceiving,” it said.

集装箱运输数据提供商和分析师 Alphaliner 解释说，事实并非如此。

The three global alliances — 2M, Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance — cover the major east-west trades (Asia-U.S., Asia-Europe, Europe-U.S.) and 2M is actually the smallest of the three.

Alliances are multiyear vessel-sharing agreements approved by regulators that allow carrier members to offer joint services and cooperate on capacity management. Shipping lines only dedicate a portion of their ships to alliances. The remainder are used for north-south trades, intra-Asia service and other routes.

The membership of the three alliances comprises the world’s top nine liner operators. These nine carrierscontrol 83%of the global capacity between them. Yet the capacity these nine carriers dedicate to the three alliances represents a much smaller share: 39%.

2M capacity

2M 容量

MSC has total fleet capacity of 4.63 million twenty-foot equivalent units. But it only contributes 25% of that (1.15 million TEUs) to 2M, according to Alphaliner. That is the smallest share, by far, of alliance capacity of any of the nine carriers involved in the three groups.

Maersk has total capacity of 4.23 million TEUs, with 39% in 2M (1.66M TEUs).

Total 2M capacity is 2.82 million TEUs. That’s only 11% of global capacity, a much lower share than the overall combined MSC-Maersk fleets (34%).

Ocean Alliance capacity

海洋联盟容量

It is also significantly lower than capacity in the biggest shipping alliance: the Ocean Alliance, whose members are France’s CMA CGM, the world’s third-largest liner operator; China’s Cosco, the fourth largest (including subsidiary OOCL); and Taiwan’s Evergreen, the sixth largest.

它的运力也远远低于最大的航运联盟: 海洋联盟(Ocean Alliance) ，其成员包括全球第三大班轮运营商法国达飞集团(CMA CGM) ; 中国第四大(包括子公司东方海外)的中远(Cosco) ; 以及台湾第六大的长荣(Evergreen)。

The Ocean Alliance has total capacity of 4.3 million TEUs, 52% more than 2M. Ocean Alliance capacity accounts for 16% of global fleet capacity.

Its members are individually smaller than Maersk and MSC, but they deploy much more of their capacity within the alliance. CMA CGM and Cosco have around half their capacity in the Ocean Alliance, Evergreen at three-quarters.

THE Alliance capacity

THE联盟容量

The second largest global shipping alliance is THE Alliance, the partnership between Japan’s ONE (the world’s seventh-largest carrier), Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd (No. 5), South Korea’s HMM (No. 8) and Taiwan’s Yang Ming (No. 9).

全球第二大航运联盟是日本的 ONE (世界第七大船司)、德国的 Hapag-Lloyd (世界第五大船司)、韩国的 HMM (世界第八大船司)和台湾的阳明(世界第九大船司)。

While the members of THE Alliance are smaller individually than those in the Ocean Alliance, they contribute even more of their fleets to the strategic agreement. Yang Ming has 80% of its capacity in alliance services, HMM 78%, ONE 69% and Hapag-Lloyd 43%, according to Alphaliner.

The combined deployed capacity in THE Alliance, 3.03 million TEUs, represents 12% of global capacity.

(Chart on right: American Shipper based on Alphaliner data; two charts on left: Alphaliner) (右图: 基于 Alphaliner 数据的美国托运人; 左图: Alphaliner)

What’s next for alliances?

联盟的下一步是什么？

Speculation has been swirling about whether the recently announced breakup of 2M will lead to or coincide with changes in the other two alliances.

人们一直在猜测，最近宣布的2M 解散是否会导致或与其他两个联盟的变化同时发生。

Alphaliner believes MSC will go it alone and does not need to join another alliance, given its massive orderbook and unprecedented buying spree in the secondhand market.

Alphaliner 认为，鉴于 MSC 的大量订单和史无前例的二手市场收购狂潮，该公司将单干，不需要加入另一个联盟。

“The key question remains whether Maersk will try to build a new alliance around itself or not,” it said. “Unlike MSC, whose fleet could swell to 6 million TEUs in the coming years, Maersk might not have the necessary scale to go it alone.”

“关键问题仍然是，马士基是否会试图围绕自身建立一个新的联盟,”该公司表示。“与未来几年可能增至600万标准箱的海运公司不同，马士基可能没有必要的规模单独行动。”

Maersk told Alphaliner it will not seek to set up a new alliance to replace 2M. Instead, it “plans to run a stand-alone network on key trade lanes,” Alphaliner reported Tuesday.

Nevertheless, Alphaliner cited two theoretical alliance possibilities: Maersk could join THE Alliance, or it could team up with CMA CGM if the French carrier left the Ocean Alliance.

尽管如此，Alphaliner 列举了两种理论上的联盟可能性: 马士基可以加入海洋联盟，或者如果法国航空公司离开海洋联盟，它可以与 CMA CGM 合作。

CMA CGM has LNG- and methanol-fueled newbuildings in line with Maersk’s methanol-fuel strategy. In addition, there are geopolitical risks to the Ocean Alliance.

CMA CGM 拥有 LNG 和甲醇燃料的新订单，符合马士基的甲醇燃料战略。此外，海洋联盟还面临地缘政治风险。

“CMA CGM … could be afraid that the group will be dominated by China or that geopolitical tensions — with Cosco being from mainland China, OOCL from Hong Kong and Evergreen from Taiwan — could spill over into the alliance’s day-to-day operations,” noted Alphaliner.

“ CMA CGM... ... 可能担心该集团将由中国大陆主导，或者担心地缘政治紧张局势(中远来自中国大陆、东方海外来自香港、长荣来自台湾)可能波及到联盟的日常运营,”Alphaliner 表示。

If Maersk stays out of new formal alliances, which Alphaliner believes is the most likely scenario, Maersk could cooperate on a non-alliance basis with Zim (NYSE: ZIM), which currently does joint North American services with 2M. The analyst noted that Zim’s LNG-powered newbuilds “would be a good match” for Maersk.

如果马士基不与新的正式联盟(Alphaliner 认为这是最有可能的情况)进行合作，马士基可以与 ZIM (纽约证券交易所市场代码: ZIM)在非联盟的基础上进行合作。 ZIM 目前与2M 公司合作提供北美地区的服务。这位分析师指出，Zim 的液化天然气动力新厂“将是与马士基的良好匹配”。

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